The Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons (RCVS) has worked with the Institute for Employment Studies (IES) to develop a new workforce model for the veterinary professions, using current data to make projections of workforce numbers in relation to demands for veterinary services to 2035.
The model and its associated report published last week and are based on demographic data sourced from the RCVS Registers of Veterinary Surgeons and Veterinary Nurses respectively, as well as the 2019 and 2024 Surveys of the Professions. Furthermore, the Office for National Statistics data for projected economic growth, the PDSA’s Animal Wellbeing (PAW) Reports on animal ownership and data from a number of vet and vet nurse employers were used to estimate and project demand for veterinary services.
Combined, these sources of data have allowed IES to develop a model that can not only project the future supply of veterinary professionals in particular areas of veterinary work (for example, industry, charity, university and clinical practice) for the next 10 years, but also project potential trends and changes in demand.
Some key findings of the model in regard to veterinary surgeons were:
- The number of vets in clinical practice is projected to grow at a faster rate (56 percent) than vets overall (52 percent); in 2035, vets in clinical practice are forecast to make up 83 percent of all vets, compared with 80 percent in 2023
- Within clinical practice, the number of small animal vets is projected to increase by 62 percent, to 27,920 in 2035
- The number of full-time equivalent (FTE) vets is projected to increase by 42 percent between 2023 and 2035 (compared with the growth in headcount numbers of 52 percent), with the average FTE falling from 0.85 in 2023 to 0.79 in 2035
- In terms of supply and demand, the supply of vets equated to 90 percent of total demand in 2023, and this is projected to increase to 96 percent in 2032, before dropping off very slightly to 2035
- In clinical practice, where vets have been under pressure in recent years due in part to workforce shortages, supply is projected to increase from 91 percent of total demand in 2023 to nearly 99 percent in 2035
- However, in government service, supply was 79 percent of total demand in 2023, and although this will increase slightly to 2029, it will then fall so that in 2035 it is likely to be 78 percent of total demand.
Some key findings of the model in regard to veterinary nurses were:
- The number of vet nurses on the Register is projected to increase by 78 percent between 2023 and 2035, reaching 41,200. This rate of growth (around 4.9 percent per year) is lower than the average growth between 2017 and 2023 (7.2 percent).
- Growth is faster among the older age groups, with the proportion of vet nurses aged 40 and over projected to increase from 30 percent of the total in 2023 to 38 percent in 2035
- The number of vet nurses in clinical practice (where the majority of vet nurses work) is expected to increase by more than the overall average (86 percent compared with 78 percent)
- The number of FTE vet nurses is projected to increase by 72 percent between 2023 and 2035 (compared to the increase in headcount of 78 percent) and the average FTE across all vet nurses is projected to fall from 0.84 in 2023 to 0.81 in 2035
- In terms of demand and supply, the supply of vet nurses equated to 96 percent of total demand in 2023, and will exceed total demand by 2025, reaching a surplus of 22 percent over total demand by 2035. In clinical practice, by 2035 there is a predicted surplus of 28 percent over the total demand level
Speaking about the results, Lizzie Lockett, RCVS chief executive officer, said: “We’re very proud of this workforce model, which uses robust data for the supply and demand for veterinary services, and we are very thankful for all of those individuals and organisations that have contributed their data to help us build it.
“In 2021, there were clear concerns about there being a workforce crisis within the veterinary professions, and while that certainly seemed to be the case, and is likely to continue to be so in the short-term, according to this model the future picture for the professions looks much better in most areas of veterinary practice.
“However, government service/public health looks to be an area where there is still a significant shortfall in supply, which is concerning considering the importance of government vets in food safety, disease prevention and international trade and we are willing to continue to work with government to find ways to remedy this shortfall.
“We are aware that there may be some concerns about the implications of the model, particularly concerning the potential oversupply of veterinary nurses. While we stand by the robustness of the data, demography is not destiny, and with the planned enhancement of the veterinary nurse role, and the likelihood of supressed demand due to prior shortages, it is likely that the number of veterinary nursing roles will expand to encompass the number of veterinary nurses available to work in it.
“Finally, we are aware that there are also some limitations to the model in its current form, for example, in terms of regional data. This is a work in progress, and we will continue to update and improve the model as and when new data allows.”
If you have any feedback on the model, you are welcome to contact RCVS Research Manager Vicki Bolton.
The workforce modelling report is available to download here.
