THE fall in house prices is apparently sending shock waves through middle England. Hardly a news bulletin goes by without some reference to the impending disaster (a complete collapse in property prices), the like of which has never been seen.
Except perhaps during the early 1990s (which I remember well), and no doubt during the crash before that (whenever that was), and the one before that too. History after all has a habit of repeating itself.
For me the only surprising thing about the imminent crash is that so many people appear to be surprised by it. Because if one could only take a step back from what is happening with property, or shares for that matter, and then examine it rationally and dispassionately, it is not difficult to understand that the “price correction” we are currently seeing was as inevitable as night following day.
Any schoolboy would be able to tell you that one of the problems of a market economy (Capitalism to those of us brought up in the sixties and seventies), is that it will be characterised by booms and slumps. And the bigger the boom, the bigger (and the harder to take) the slump that inevitably follows.
The frustrating thing for many of us is that we have such short memories and we tend to get caught up in the euphoria of the booming times. And I suppose (largely because it suits us) we believe the pundits who tell us that this time the boom really is sustainable because the market conditions are so different to the last.
The self-same pundits who in their first “column” after the bubble has gone pop, explain to us that they’d seen it all coming years previously because it was … well, just so obvious.
Falling house prices are only one of the symptoms of the credit crunch. Perhaps of more importance to those of us who bought our homes some long time ago are the more general rises in costs associated with food, fuel and utilities. The sort of things that have a much greater impact on our daily lives.
Bearing this in mind and with the summer (what summer?) now drawing to a close and coupled to the darkening and cooling of the nights, I have begun to prepare my kids for a change in behaviour this coming winter.
Recounting to them my own memories of childhood, when we not infrequently woke up with ice on the inside of our bedroom windows (“Yeah get a life dad, this is the 21st century we’re living in’), I have warned them that not everywhere in our cold and draughty farmhouse is going to be heated to the previous subtropical heights. Instead, woollen jumpers and blankets are going to become the order of the day, and night.
Realistically I suspect that I am in for a hard fight, but the sight of my kids wearing thin t-shirts and “strappy” tops around the house whilst complaining bitterly about how cold it is will hopefully encourage me to stand firm. After all, what’s good for my bank balance is also good for the planet.
Get stuck in…
So how is the recession (and I can’t see how we are now going to avoid a recession so we may as well get stuck into it sooner rather than later) going to affect veterinary practice?
I’m sure that those working in the more affluent parts of the country will see little if any difference to their workload. To the rich, veterinary fees (even though they moan about them) do not encroach significantly on their budgetary resources and the odd client bankruptcy aside, there is unlikely to be any serious difficulty in them stumping up the cash for their pet as and when needed. As a group too, the wealthy are the most likely to have pet insurance just for such eventualities.
For practices in more marginal areas, however, people’s household budgets might not be so flexible. In these circumstances their animals’ veterinary fees might be considered one of the “luxuries” that simply have to fall off the end of the table, for the time being at least. Which could translate into fewer routine vaccinations, fewer routine wormings, fewer flea treatments, etc.
Storing up problems
Will this make a significant difference to their pets’ welfare? In some cases certainly but for the majority, in the short term, they will probably get away with it. Though it might mean a lot of stored up problems emerging at a later date.
The impact on practice income if such a scenario materialises could be significant though, because vaccinations and wormers are generally (and rightly in my view) a profitable part of practice revenue. Plus the annual visit for vaccination enables other important work like dental problems, obesity, that creeping arthritis of middle to old age, to be identified and addressed. All of which generates important income and keeps the animal fit and well in the longer term.
It is also conceivable that clients might by circumstances be tempted more than ever to shop around for the best deals on offer for preventive medicine. And they might, particularly for those with large dogs or more than one pet, opt to go for a cheaper dog or cat food than the one they have been accustomed to buying from their vet.
I for one am amazed by the difference in price between the more upmarket brand complete foods and those of reputable but I suppose less glamorous competitors.
For my own contribution to surviving the downturn I will redouble my efforts to buy whichever dog food is on special offer when I turn up at the pet superstore, just so long as it’s made by a company with a track record of quality.
That should leave some money left over for the extra jumpers and blankets that I am determined we are going to need.
